Dunkin'

Limited-Service Restaurants

Five-year pro-forma

These are your numbers to set, not the franchisor’s. 8 of the figures below come from the filing; 14 do not, and 14 of those are placeholders with no source at all. Start with revenue and gross margin — they move the answer more than anything else here.

Revenue
$

What you expect one outlet to bill in its first year, not once established.

$

Leave blank to hold year 1 flat.

$

Years 4 and 5 continue from here at the growth rate below.

%
The costs that decide it
%

No FDD discloses a gross margin. 43.5% is a placeholder set against home care — it fits no restaurant, and it is the first figure you should replace. What is left of each dollar of sales after the direct cost of delivering it, before rent, office payroll and the franchisor's fees.

$

Everyone not already counted in cost of sales. For a service business where the staff ARE the cost of sales, this is the office only.

$
More assumptions9 fields
Fees and other costs
%
%
%

Headcount steps rather than glides — a smooth rate is a convenience, not a hiring plan.

%
$

Item 6 often states this as the greater of a dollar minimum or a percentage. The floor is what bites in year one.

%
$

The part that stays the same whatever you sell: insurance, software, accounting, phones.

%

The part that grows with the work: mileage, supplies, processing fees, invoices you never collect.

Investment and financing
$

Defaults to the midpoint of the Item 7 range.

$
$
%
months
%

What this money could earn elsewhere at similar risk. NPV is meaningless without it, and it decides the sign of the answer.

$

Taken out before the cash flow below.

7 of these inputs are not in the FDD. A franchise disclosure document states fees, the investment range and sometimes revenue. It says nothing about margin, labour or rent — and those decide the answer.

You need $252,101 of your own cash, and you are whole again in month 49. Over five years the business returns 1.38x what you put in. That is behind the 12% you set as what this money could earn elsewhere, by $11,829 in today's terms — an annual 10.2%.

Cash needed$252,101Deepest at month 12. Your $236,490 plus the burn before it turns.
Revenue to break even$944,585What a mature year must take to cover every cost, including your own pay. Ask whether your market can produce it.
Money backMonth 49 (4 yr 1 mo)When cumulative cash turns positive — the month you are whole again.
5-year cash-on-cash1.38xFive years of net cash divided by the cash you put in. 1.0x means you got it back and no more.
IRR
10.2%
NPV at 12%
-$11,829
Return on project cost
-4.9%
Year 5 EBITDA
$256,958
Year by yearThe full profit and loss behind these figures
Five-year projected profit and loss for Dunkin'
LineYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
What comes in
Revenue$891,845$1,166,259$1,303,466$1,342,570$1,382,847
Cost of sales$503,892$658,936$736,458$758,552$781,308
Gross profit$387,953$507,323$567,008$584,018$601,538
What running it costs
Labour$60,000$66,000$72,600$79,860$87,846
Rent$36,000$37,080$38,192$39,338$40,518
Royalty$52,619$68,809$76,904$79,212$81,588
Ad fund$44,592$58,313$65,173$67,128$69,142
Other operating costs$50,755$58,988$63,104$64,277$65,485
Required local marketing$0$0$0$0$0
EBITDA$143,986$218,133$251,033$254,202$256,958
What the financing and your pay take
Debt service$159,597$159,597$159,597$159,597$159,597
Owner pay$0$0$0$0$0
Net cash flow-$15,611$58,535$91,436$94,605$97,361
Cumulative cash flow-$252,101-$193,566-$102,130-$7,524$89,837

On your numbers

Can I make money?
Yes, on these figures. $256,958 of operating profit in year five, and 1.4x the cash you put in over five years. Change a number above and this changes with it — that is the point of it.
How long until I break even?
Month 49 (4 yr 1 mo) before cumulative cash turns positive — the month you are whole again. Until then you are funding it, and the deepest that gets is $252,101.

Your inputs, not the franchisor’s claim. NPV is discounted at 12%.

If your numbers are wrongBull and bear cases, and what happens when revenue and margin move together

Bull, base and bear

Three ways the same business could trade. Revenue and margin move together; rent, the loan payment and the royalty rate do not, which is why the downside is worse than the upside is good.

Scenario comparison
CaseAssumptionYear 5 revenueYear 5 EBITDAPays back5-yr cash-on-cash
BearRevenue 25% below plan, gross margin three points worse$1,037,135$123,514Does not break even in 5 years-110%
BaseExactly the assumptions entered above$1,382,847$256,958Month 49 (4 yr 1 mo)138%
BullRevenue 15% above plan, gross margin two points better$1,590,274$350,162Month 28 (2 yr 4 mo)311%
None of these is the case where the business closes. All three assume it trades for five years. Of Dunkin' franchisees who borrowed through the SBA and whose loans have finished, 4 of 243 did not repay (1.6%). That outcome is not a lower number in the bear column — it is the absence of all three.

Revenue against margin

The single-driver figures above ask what happens if revenue disappoints. This asks what happens when revenue disappoints and margin is thinner than promised — which is how these businesses usually get into trouble, since the two arrive together.

Sensitivity of five-year cash-on-cash to revenue and gross margin
Revenue \ Margin-6 pts-3 ptsas entered+3 pts+6 pts
-30%-199%-145%-91%-37%18%
-15%-108%-42%24%89%155%
as entered-16%61%138%215%292%
+15%75%163%252%341%430%
+30%166%266%367%467%567%

Return over five years on the $236,490 of the owner’s own cash, not on the total project cost. Every cell is your assumptions with two of them moved — the grid does not make any of them more likely.

Cash-on-cash by year

Annual cash-on-cash return
CaseYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Bear-43%-23%-15%-15%-15%
Base-7%25%39%40%41%
Bull19%58%76%78%81%

Shown per year, not just as a five-year total: a business that loses money for three years and earns it back later has the same total as one that earns steadily, and only one of them is survivable for an owner living on the proceeds.

Where these numbers come from8 from the filing, 0 reported but unverified, 14 placeholders with no source
Revenue, year 1From the filing
Yours, or this brand's. Where the filing states a per-outlet revenue this site will stand behind, year one opens at that figure times the first year of the ramp. Where it does not — no Item 19, or an average quoted over a population the document describes ambiguously — the field opens EMPTY and the model computes nothing until you fill it. It used to open at $250,000 on every brand, one home-care owner's real first year, and publish an IRR from it. Item 19 of this brand's filing, where usable, read 2026-09-29
Revenue, year 2From the filing
Year one carried up the ramp, on the same rule as year one: this brand's figure where the filing supports one, empty where it does not. Clear it and the model holds the previous year flat instead, which is deliberately pessimistic rather than a forecast. Item 19 of this brand's filing, where usable, read 2026-09-29
Revenue, year 3From the filing
As year two. The ramp's shape — 65%, 85%, 95% of a stabilised year — is ours and is the assumption worth arguing with; the level it is applied to is the filing's. A first year is not an average year, so even a seeded figure is a starting point to replace with what you expect one outlet to take. Item 19 of this brand's filing, where usable, read 2026-09-29
Growth after year 3Placeholder, no source
3% a year after year three, which assumes the outlet has matured and grows with prices rather than with capacity. If it is still filling territory, this is too low.
Gross marginPlaceholder, no source
43.5%, set by hand against home care and not taken from any source. No FDD discloses a gross margin, so there is nothing to read it from — and this figure describes no restaurant, gym or roofing franchise. It is a starting point and the field most in need of your own number, because every figure on this page moves with it. Per-sector defaults would be the honest improvement and the corpus cannot support them: no filing we hold records cost of goods or gross profit, and most brands carry no sector at all, so any per-industry figure would be invented rather than derived.
Office payroll a yearPlaceholder, no source
No source. $60,000 a year covers a full-time scheduler, or a coordinator plus part-time admin — the office, not the people delivering the service, whose pay is already in cost of sales. Dollars rather than a share of revenue, because the post has to be filled before the revenue arrives: charged at 2% of a $250,000 first year it came to $5,000, which employs nobody.
Office payroll growth a yearPlaceholder, no source
10% a year. Office headcount steps rather than glides — you add a coordinator, not a tenth of one — so a smooth rate is a convenience, not a forecast of when the next hire lands.
Rent growth a yearPlaceholder, no source
3% a year, a conventional lease escalator. Your own lease states the real one, and it may be fixed, indexed, or stepped at renewal.
Rent per monthPlaceholder, no source
No source. Defaults to $3,000 a month, which assumes a small office rather than a retail unit — a home-care agency does not need a shopfront. Entirely territory-dependent, and the single input most worth replacing with a real quote.
Royalty rateFrom the filing
Item 6 of this brand's disclosure document, as filed. Where the royalty is a flat monthly amount rather than a percentage the field is null, because there is no percentage to record.
Ad / brand fund rateFrom the filing
Item 6, as filed. Where a filing tiers the rate by revenue band the field records the first-dollar rate, and the figure is marked contested.
Required local marketing, a yearFrom the filing
Item 6 states required local marketing as the greater of an annual minimum or a percentage of revenue. The minimum is what binds in the early years — at $200,000 of revenue a $24,000 floor is 12% of sales.
Local marketing as a share of revenueFrom the filing
Item 6, as filed — the percentage that applies above the floor.
Other operating costs, fixedPlaceholder, no source
No source. $2,000 a month stands in for the costs that do not move with volume — insurance, technology, professional fees, the phone system. Each has its own size, and the filing itemises none of them.
Other operating costs, per dollar of revenuePlaceholder, no source
No source. 3% of revenue stands in for the costs that do move with volume: mileage, supplies, payment processing, bad debt. The split between this and the fixed line is not researched — what is defensible is that the split exists at all. Modelled as one flat monthly figure, this line charged an outlet at $1.1M of revenue exactly what it charged one at $400,000, which made every later year too profitable and understated the revenue needed to break even.
Total initial investmentFrom the filing
Item 7, as filed. The franchisor's estimate of one-time costs — it does not include the operating loss before the outlet turns, which is what Cash needed adds.
Your cash down paymentPlaceholder, no source
20% of the investment, the conventional SBA equity injection. Your lender sets the real figure and may require more.
Additional working capitalPlaceholder, no source
Zero by default, which is almost never right: payroll is paid before receivables are collected. Compare it against Cash needed.
Loan ratePlaceholder, no source
No source. SBA 7(a) rates are a spread over prime and move with it — take the figure from a lender's term sheet, not from here.
Loan termPlaceholder, no source
120 months, the common term for an SBA 7(a) business loan without real estate. Confirm with the lender.
Your own pay per monthPlaceholder, no source
Zero by default, which assumes you take nothing out. That flatters the cash flow — an owner who needs to live on the business should set it.
Discount rate for NPVPlaceholder, no source
12% is a conventional hurdle for an owner-operated business, not a researched cost of capital. It decides the sign of the NPV, so it is yours to set.

A placeholder is not a finding. Anything marked as one was chosen to be plausible so the page would compute, and every figure below it in the projection inherits that. Replace them with quotes, a lender’s term sheet and the filing itself before the output is worth acting on.

This pro-forma is a projection built from user inputs and franchisor-disclosed data. It is not a promise of financial performance, and no franchisor endorses or guarantees these projections. Actual results depend on many factors outside these inputs including local market conditions, operator skill, and macroeconomic environment. Consult a qualified franchise attorney and CPA before signing any franchise agreement.

FDD data sourced from public state filings. We are not a franchise broker; we do not receive payment from franchisors and do not sell your information. Figures are read from the filing by a machine and link to the page they came from — check any of them against the source. Read the current disclosure document, and take advice from a franchise attorney, before you sign anything.