Dunkin'
Limited-Service Restaurants
Five-year pro-forma
These are your numbers to set, not the franchisor’s. 8 of the figures below come from the filing; 14 do not, and 14 of those are placeholders with no source at all. Start with revenue and gross margin — they move the answer more than anything else here.
7 of these inputs are not in the FDD. A franchise disclosure document states fees, the investment range and sometimes revenue. It says nothing about margin, labour or rent — and those decide the answer.
You need $252,101 of your own cash, and you are whole again in month 49. Over five years the business returns 1.38x what you put in. That is behind the 12% you set as what this money could earn elsewhere, by $11,829 in today's terms — an annual 10.2%.
- IRR
- 10.2%
- NPV at 12%
- -$11,829
- Return on project cost
- -4.9%
- Year 5 EBITDA
- $256,958
Year by yearThe full profit and loss behind these figures
| Line | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What comes in | |||||
| Revenue | $891,845 | $1,166,259 | $1,303,466 | $1,342,570 | $1,382,847 |
| Cost of sales | $503,892 | $658,936 | $736,458 | $758,552 | $781,308 |
| Gross profit | $387,953 | $507,323 | $567,008 | $584,018 | $601,538 |
| What running it costs | |||||
| Labour | $60,000 | $66,000 | $72,600 | $79,860 | $87,846 |
| Rent | $36,000 | $37,080 | $38,192 | $39,338 | $40,518 |
| Royalty | $52,619 | $68,809 | $76,904 | $79,212 | $81,588 |
| Ad fund | $44,592 | $58,313 | $65,173 | $67,128 | $69,142 |
| Other operating costs | $50,755 | $58,988 | $63,104 | $64,277 | $65,485 |
| Required local marketing | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| EBITDA | $143,986 | $218,133 | $251,033 | $254,202 | $256,958 |
| What the financing and your pay take | |||||
| Debt service | $159,597 | $159,597 | $159,597 | $159,597 | $159,597 |
| Owner pay | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net cash flow | -$15,611 | $58,535 | $91,436 | $94,605 | $97,361 |
| Cumulative cash flow | -$252,101 | -$193,566 | -$102,130 | -$7,524 | $89,837 |
On your numbers
- Can I make money?
- Yes, on these figures. $256,958 of operating profit in year five, and 1.4x the cash you put in over five years. Change a number above and this changes with it — that is the point of it.
- How long until I break even?
- Month 49 (4 yr 1 mo) before cumulative cash turns positive — the month you are whole again. Until then you are funding it, and the deepest that gets is $252,101.
Your inputs, not the franchisor’s claim. NPV is discounted at 12%.
If your numbers are wrongBull and bear cases, and what happens when revenue and margin move together
Bull, base and bear
Three ways the same business could trade. Revenue and margin move together; rent, the loan payment and the royalty rate do not, which is why the downside is worse than the upside is good.
| Case | Assumption | Year 5 revenue | Year 5 EBITDA | Pays back | 5-yr cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | Revenue 25% below plan, gross margin three points worse | $1,037,135 | $123,514 | Does not break even in 5 years | -110% |
| Base | Exactly the assumptions entered above | $1,382,847 | $256,958 | Month 49 (4 yr 1 mo) | 138% |
| Bull | Revenue 15% above plan, gross margin two points better | $1,590,274 | $350,162 | Month 28 (2 yr 4 mo) | 311% |
Revenue against margin
The single-driver figures above ask what happens if revenue disappoints. This asks what happens when revenue disappoints and margin is thinner than promised — which is how these businesses usually get into trouble, since the two arrive together.
| Revenue \ Margin | -6 pts | -3 pts | as entered | +3 pts | +6 pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -30% | -199% | -145% | -91% | -37% | 18% |
| -15% | -108% | -42% | 24% | 89% | 155% |
| as entered | -16% | 61% | 138% | 215% | 292% |
| +15% | 75% | 163% | 252% | 341% | 430% |
| +30% | 166% | 266% | 367% | 467% | 567% |
Return over five years on the $236,490 of the owner’s own cash, not on the total project cost. Every cell is your assumptions with two of them moved — the grid does not make any of them more likely.
Cash-on-cash by year
| Case | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -43% | -23% | -15% | -15% | -15% |
| Base | -7% | 25% | 39% | 40% | 41% |
| Bull | 19% | 58% | 76% | 78% | 81% |
Shown per year, not just as a five-year total: a business that loses money for three years and earns it back later has the same total as one that earns steadily, and only one of them is survivable for an owner living on the proceeds.
Where these numbers come from8 from the filing, 0 reported but unverified, 14 placeholders with no source
- Revenue, year 1From the filing
- Yours, or this brand's. Where the filing states a per-outlet revenue this site will stand behind, year one opens at that figure times the first year of the ramp. Where it does not — no Item 19, or an average quoted over a population the document describes ambiguously — the field opens EMPTY and the model computes nothing until you fill it. It used to open at $250,000 on every brand, one home-care owner's real first year, and publish an IRR from it. Item 19 of this brand's filing, where usable, read 2026-09-29
- Revenue, year 2From the filing
- Year one carried up the ramp, on the same rule as year one: this brand's figure where the filing supports one, empty where it does not. Clear it and the model holds the previous year flat instead, which is deliberately pessimistic rather than a forecast. Item 19 of this brand's filing, where usable, read 2026-09-29
- Revenue, year 3From the filing
- As year two. The ramp's shape — 65%, 85%, 95% of a stabilised year — is ours and is the assumption worth arguing with; the level it is applied to is the filing's. A first year is not an average year, so even a seeded figure is a starting point to replace with what you expect one outlet to take. Item 19 of this brand's filing, where usable, read 2026-09-29
- Growth after year 3Placeholder, no source
- 3% a year after year three, which assumes the outlet has matured and grows with prices rather than with capacity. If it is still filling territory, this is too low.
- Gross marginPlaceholder, no source
- 43.5%, set by hand against home care and not taken from any source. No FDD discloses a gross margin, so there is nothing to read it from — and this figure describes no restaurant, gym or roofing franchise. It is a starting point and the field most in need of your own number, because every figure on this page moves with it. Per-sector defaults would be the honest improvement and the corpus cannot support them: no filing we hold records cost of goods or gross profit, and most brands carry no sector at all, so any per-industry figure would be invented rather than derived.
- Office payroll a yearPlaceholder, no source
- No source. $60,000 a year covers a full-time scheduler, or a coordinator plus part-time admin — the office, not the people delivering the service, whose pay is already in cost of sales. Dollars rather than a share of revenue, because the post has to be filled before the revenue arrives: charged at 2% of a $250,000 first year it came to $5,000, which employs nobody.
- Office payroll growth a yearPlaceholder, no source
- 10% a year. Office headcount steps rather than glides — you add a coordinator, not a tenth of one — so a smooth rate is a convenience, not a forecast of when the next hire lands.
- Rent growth a yearPlaceholder, no source
- 3% a year, a conventional lease escalator. Your own lease states the real one, and it may be fixed, indexed, or stepped at renewal.
- Rent per monthPlaceholder, no source
- No source. Defaults to $3,000 a month, which assumes a small office rather than a retail unit — a home-care agency does not need a shopfront. Entirely territory-dependent, and the single input most worth replacing with a real quote.
- Royalty rateFrom the filing
- Item 6 of this brand's disclosure document, as filed. Where the royalty is a flat monthly amount rather than a percentage the field is null, because there is no percentage to record.
- Ad / brand fund rateFrom the filing
- Item 6, as filed. Where a filing tiers the rate by revenue band the field records the first-dollar rate, and the figure is marked contested.
- Required local marketing, a yearFrom the filing
- Item 6 states required local marketing as the greater of an annual minimum or a percentage of revenue. The minimum is what binds in the early years — at $200,000 of revenue a $24,000 floor is 12% of sales.
- Local marketing as a share of revenueFrom the filing
- Item 6, as filed — the percentage that applies above the floor.
- Other operating costs, fixedPlaceholder, no source
- No source. $2,000 a month stands in for the costs that do not move with volume — insurance, technology, professional fees, the phone system. Each has its own size, and the filing itemises none of them.
- Other operating costs, per dollar of revenuePlaceholder, no source
- No source. 3% of revenue stands in for the costs that do move with volume: mileage, supplies, payment processing, bad debt. The split between this and the fixed line is not researched — what is defensible is that the split exists at all. Modelled as one flat monthly figure, this line charged an outlet at $1.1M of revenue exactly what it charged one at $400,000, which made every later year too profitable and understated the revenue needed to break even.
- Total initial investmentFrom the filing
- Item 7, as filed. The franchisor's estimate of one-time costs — it does not include the operating loss before the outlet turns, which is what Cash needed adds.
- Your cash down paymentPlaceholder, no source
- 20% of the investment, the conventional SBA equity injection. Your lender sets the real figure and may require more.
- Additional working capitalPlaceholder, no source
- Zero by default, which is almost never right: payroll is paid before receivables are collected. Compare it against Cash needed.
- Loan ratePlaceholder, no source
- No source. SBA 7(a) rates are a spread over prime and move with it — take the figure from a lender's term sheet, not from here.
- Loan termPlaceholder, no source
- 120 months, the common term for an SBA 7(a) business loan without real estate. Confirm with the lender.
- Your own pay per monthPlaceholder, no source
- Zero by default, which assumes you take nothing out. That flatters the cash flow — an owner who needs to live on the business should set it.
- Discount rate for NPVPlaceholder, no source
- 12% is a conventional hurdle for an owner-operated business, not a researched cost of capital. It decides the sign of the NPV, so it is yours to set.
A placeholder is not a finding. Anything marked as one was chosen to be plausible so the page would compute, and every figure below it in the projection inherits that. Replace them with quotes, a lender’s term sheet and the filing itself before the output is worth acting on.
This pro-forma is a projection built from user inputs and franchisor-disclosed data. It is not a promise of financial performance, and no franchisor endorses or guarantees these projections. Actual results depend on many factors outside these inputs including local market conditions, operator skill, and macroeconomic environment. Consult a qualified franchise attorney and CPA before signing any franchise agreement.